Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Some thoughts on primary day in New York (there is some math in here anyway)

Print Friendly and PDF The following is from the April 11, 1997 edition of The New York Times, (Find article here). The event was a speech Donald Trump gave as Principal for a Day at a public school in New York City.
Mr. Trump glided to the microphone. 
''First of all, who likes Nike sneakers?'' he asked. All 300 fifth graders raised their hands. Mr. Trump leaned in to drop the bombshell. ''If everybody puts their name on a piece of paper right now, I will pick 15 people and I'll take you to the new Nike store that I just opened at Trump Tower.'' 
The fifth graders erupted in frenzied excitement at the promise of a trip to what Mr. Trump described as the ''inner city called 57th and Fifth.'' But a little while later, 11-year-old Andres Rodriguez had a question.
''Why,'' asked Andres, whose father is dead and whose mother cannot work because of a bad leg, ''did you offer us sneakers if you could give us scholarships?''

Note that he did not even say that he would randomly draw 15 names: no, he would "pick" 15 people. Also, he would take them to his store, so that his money would be paid to his store. At least Andres Rodriquez made everyone aware that Trump was nothing more than a selfish rich guy.

Make sure you read the article. There is more to the story.

While reading a Maureen Dowd article from Nov. 17, 1999, it hit me: "Trumpster" does indeed rhyme with "dumpster." It does. It's a fact. And I am sure that many Trump fans would hate me for saying it. I guess it is possible to hate the truth.

According to 2014 data (see here) the 21st Congressional district had 127,262 registered Democrats and 181,832 registered Republicans. The 5th Congressional district had 301,082 registered Democrats and 35,339 registered Republicans.

In the 2016 primary (voting today) each district will have 3 delegates up for grabs in each district. That gives the 35,339 people in district 5 the effective voting power of the 181,832 from district 21.

Under primary rules in effect, a candidate needs 50% of the vote to get all 3 delegates. The specific numbers are probably different this year, but not by much.

So 18000 people in district 5 (partly in Nassau County, partly in Queens) gets a candidate 3 delegates. Compare that with 91,000 required in district 21 (parts if not all of 12 northern NY counties).

Any wonder why upstate gets largely ignored?

Also: Donald Trump cries out about a "rigged" system. I haven't heard him say anything about this.

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